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Tennessee October revenues $178.1M above estimates

Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration Commissioner Jim Bryson announced that Tennessee tax revenues exceeded budgeted estimates in October.

Overall October revenues were $1.5 billion, which is $125.4 million more than October of last year and $178.1 million more than the budgeted estimate. The growth rate for October was 8.93%.

“October revenues surpassed our budgeted monthly estimate as a result of strong sales tax remittances,” Bryson said. “October sales tax receipt growth, reflecting September taxable sales activity, made up 92% of the month’s growth from last year. The largest retail sales gains for the month came from the categories of building materials and eating and drinking places. All other state tax categories combined experienced limited growth.

“In the first three months of the fiscal year, we are pleased to have outperformed our budgeted estimates by nearly 13% and to have growth, compared to last year, near 10%. However, we expect these elevated measures will lessen as we progress through the remainder of the fiscal year. As such, we will continue to monitor economic activity and revenue trends to ensure fiscal stability.”

On an accrual basis, October is the third month in the 2022-2023 fiscal year.

General fund revenues for October were $161.8 million more than the budgeted estimate, and the four other funds that share in state tax revenues were $16.3 million more than the budgeted estimates.

Sales tax revenues were $128.9 million more than the estimate for October. The October growth rate was 11.27% . Year-to-date revenues are 10.71% more than this time last year.

Franchise and excise taxes combined were $28.7 million more than the October budgeted estimate of $84.4 million. The October growth rate was 15.21 % , and the year-to-date corporate tax growth rate is 18.53% .

Gasoline and motor fuel revenues increased by 2.15% and were $0.3 million more than the budgeted estimate of $111.9 million. Year-to-date fuel tax collections are lower by 0.45% compared to this same time last year.

Motor Vehicle Registration revenue receipts decreased by 35.13% from this same time last year but were $1.6 million more than the October estimate. August through October, motor vehicle registration revenues are 24.38% lower because of the one-year registration renewal waiver.

Tobacco tax revenues for the month were $0.9 million more than the budgeted estimate of $18.2 million. For three months, revenues are $0.4 million less than the budgeted estimate.

Privilege tax revenues were $1.1 million more than the budgeted estimate of $49.8 million, and on a year-to-date basis are less than estimates by $4 million.

Business tax revenues were $3.9 million more than the budgeted estimate. Year-to-date, business tax revenues are $10.3 million more than the budgeted estimate.

Mixed drink, or liquor-by-the-drink, taxes were $7.2 million more than the October estimate, and on a year-to-date basis, revenues are $13.8 million more than the estimate.

All other tax revenues were greater than estimates by a net of $5.5 million.

Year-to-date revenues for three months were $585.8 million more than the budgeted estimate. The general fund exceeded estimates by $545.2 million and the four other funds that share in state tax revenues exceeded estimates by $40.6 million.

The budgeted revenue estimates for 2022-2023 are based upon the State Funding Board’s consensus recommendation from November 23, 2021 and adopted by the second session of the 112th General Assembly in April 2022. Also incorporated in the estimates are any changes in revenue enacted during the 2022 session of the General Assembly. These estimates are available on the state’s website at https://www.tn.gov/content/tn/finance/fa/fa-budget-information/fa-budget-rev.html.