Boyd Center Projects Tennessee Population to Hit 7.94 Million by 2040
Since 1960, Tennessee has added a million people every 20 years. New projections show the state on pace to continue that trend through 2040.
Tennessee’s population is expected to reach 7.94 million by 2040, according to projections from the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. That increase of nearly 900,000 people over the next 18 years will grow the number of residents by 12.6 percent from its 2022 population of 7.05 million.
Tennessee’s population has more than tripled in the last century. It grew from 2.34 million in 1920 to a total of 6.9 million according in 2020. Its projected to grow to nearly 8 million residents by 2040.
The state has already recorded robust population increases in the early 2020s, and by 2030 is expected to grow to 7.51 million people. This 10-year increase of more than 588,000 people is projected to slightly exceed the period between 2010 and 2020 when 570,000 new residents were added.
Through 2030, Tennessee is projected to experience an annual population growth rate of 0.82 percent. A period of steady, but smaller population gains will follow as the state’s rate of increase slows to 0.55 percent annually between 2030 and 2040. That will put Tennessee on track for a 427,000-person increase over the decade.
This slower pace of increase will continue in the decades following from 2040 to 2070 (Table 1).
| Year | Population (July 1) | Decade Change | Annual Rate of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (Est.) | 6,925,619 | 570,101 | 0.86% |
| 2030 | 7,513,757 | 588,138 | 0.82% |
| 2040 | 7,940,301 | 426,544 | 0.55% |
| 2050 | 8,346,845 | 406,544 | 0.50% |
| 2060 | 8,786,239 | 439,394 | 0.51% |
| 2070 | 9,253,868 | 467,629 | 0.52% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research
“At the state level, the amount of population growth during the 2020s will feel similar to the gains we saw last decade,” said Matt Harris, Boyd Distinguished Professor of Health Economics at the Boyd Center and co-author of the new projections. “But as the Baby Boom generation reaches the later stages of life, a rising number of deaths will begin to slow Tennessee’s population increases.”
A Growing Group of Tennessee Seniors
By 2040, almost 20 percent of the state’s population is expected to be aged 65 and older. This is up from 17.3 percent in 2022 and a growth of 306,000 people.
But Tennessee’s oldest residents will be the fastest-growing subset of the senior population. In 2022, there were over 119,000 Tennesseans over the age of 85, and approximately 491,000 Tennesseans aged at least 75 years old. By 2040, those numbers are expected to increase to nearly 205,000 individuals aged 85 and older and almost 712,000 people who are at least 75 years of age (Table 2).
| Age Group | 2022 | 2040 | Change (Percent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 to 74 | 729,524 | 815,120 | 85,596 (11.7%) |
| 75 to 84 | 372,230 | 506,795 | 134,565 (36.2%) |
| 85 and over | 119,236 | 204,895 | 85,659 (71.8%) |
| All Seniors 65+ | 1,220,990 | 1,526,810 | 305,820 (25.0%) |
U.S. Census Bureau; Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research
“A growing senior population doesn’t just have implications for the health care system,” Harris said. “The full array of senior-oriented services—such as housing, transportation and other types of personal care—will also be in higher demand over the coming years.”
Youth and working-age populations in Tennessee will grow as well, but at a slower pace than the state’s senior population.
The share of the state’s population that is under age 20 will grow slightly from 24.2 percent to 24.4 percent in 2040. This equates to an increase of over 237,000 youth under the age of 20, or a 13.9 percent change.
The share of the state’s population in their prime working years between the ages of 25 and 54 will grow by 296,000 people or 10.8 percent, which is slightly slower than the state as a whole. This will result in the share of the state’s prime-age workers dipping from 38.9 percent in 2022 to 38.3 percent of the population in 2040 (Figure 2).
Tennessee’s senior population will grow by 306,000 people between 2022 and 2040. The increase in the number of people 65 years and older is both the largest among key age groups and the fastest growing, with 25 percent growth expected.
Growing More Racially and Ethnically Diverse
Roughly 60 percent of the state’s population growth by 2040 is projected to be among Hispanics, Black or African Americans, other races, or people who are more than one race. This highlights the degree to which Tennessee’s population will continue to become more racially and ethnically diverse.
The largest increase will be among Hispanic Tennesseans who are expected to grow from 450,000 in 2022 to 754,000 over the next 20 years. By 2040, the Hispanic population will comprise 9.5 percent of Tennessee residents, up from 6.4 percent in 2022.
By comparison, the white population in Tennessee is expected to have the largest growth in absolute terms (an increase of 354,000) but the share of the state’s population that is white will decrease from 72.9 percent to 69.2 percent by 2040 (Table 3).
| Race Group | 2022 | 2040 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| White non-Hispanic | 5,141,367 | 5,495,417 | 354,050 (6.9%) |
| Black non-Hispanic | 1,153,834 | 1,220,280 | 66,446 (5.8%) |
| Hispanic | 449,510 | 754,170 | 304,660 (67.8%) |
| Other and Two More Races | 306,861 | 470,434 | 163,573 (53.3%) |
U.S. Census Bureau; Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research
Emerging Factors Affecting Future Projection Releases
Inherent to any projection release is some measure of uncertainty stemming from issues related to the input data or trends whose duration or direction are not yet apparent. The Boyd Center identified four elements that could result in changes to the state’s population totals and characteristics in future projection releases.
Changing Base Population
This decade’s population estimates include figures for April 1, 2020, whose total population and characteristics—age, race/Hispanic ethnicity and sex—are subject to annual revision as data from the 2020 decennial census is incorporated. This includes substantial revisions to the state’s Hispanic population total in the vintage 2023 estimates, and further race and age adjustments are expected to be integrated into the vintage 2024 release.
Elevated Deaths
Deaths, which grew sharply in 2020 and peaked in 2021, have since receded somewhat in 2022 and remain well above pre-pandemic levels. This leaves uncertainty about when and if the state’s death rates will fall further.
Inaccurate Fertility Rates
Ultimately, the fertility rates among Hispanic females are likely too high because the denominator—the number of females aged 15 to 44—will grow as future revisions to the blended base are released.
Shifting Net Migration Patterns
This decade’s patterns of net migration are substantially different than last decade. A 20-county Nashville region captured 60 percent of the state’s population increases from net migration in the 2010s, but just 35 percent of the Tennessee total so far this decade.
The Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research is a nonpartisan research hub within the Haslam College of Business at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Its faculty engages in important academic research across a wide range of public policy projects, including education, health, e-commerce, taxation, welfare and labor. It also analyzes and disseminates data on the demography and economy of Tennessee in conjunction with the Tennessee State Data Center.