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Tennessee October revenues $30.1M less than budgeted estimates

The Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration announced that revenues for October were $1.5 billion, which is $22.6 million more than October of last year, but $30.1 million less than the budgeted estimate.  

The total growth rate for the month was 1.53 percent. 

General fund revenues were $27.1 million less than the October estimate, and the four other funds that share in state tax revenues were $3.0 million less than the estimates. 

On an accrual basis, October is the third month in the 2024-2025 fiscal year. 

"October's total tax receipts fell below budgeted expectations for the month but showed an increase compared to October 2023," Bryson said. "Sales tax revenues came in slightly below estimate, though they reflect nearly $60.3 million in adjusted growth from last year’s reduced tax base. Corporate tax revenues, or franchise and excise taxes, also missed estimates, but fuel taxes, realty recordation and transfer taxes surpassed monthly expectations. 

"Despite the modest revenue growth in October, we are only slightly above our year-to-date estimates. As a result, we will closely monitor revenue and spending trends for the remainder of the fiscal year." 

On a year-to-date basis, August through October, total tax revenues are 1.40 percent greater than the budget estimate, or $72.4 million above expectations. When compared to this same period last year, total tax revenues have grown 1.51 percent or $77.8 million. 

General fund revenues are 1.45 percent greater than the year-to-date budgeted estimate, or $61.7 million higher. Likewise, general fund collections compared to this same period last year have increased by 1.99 percent or $84.3 million. 

Individual tax performance compared to October 2024 Budgeted Estimates: 

  • Sales Taxes: Below estimate by 1.11% or $13.1million

  • Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Below estimate by 26.61% or $21.2 million 

  • Fuel Taxes: Above estimate by 1.18% or $1.3 million 

  • All other taxes: Above estimate by 1.85% or $2.9 million 

Year-to-date performance compared to Budgeted Estimates: 

  • Sales Taxes: Above estimate by 0.95% or $34 million 

  • Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Above estimate by 0.82% or $6.4 million 

  • Fuel Taxes: Above estimate by 0.98% or $3.3 million 

  • All other taxes: Above estimate by 6.04% or $28.7 million 

Individual tax performance compared to October 2023: 

  • Sales Taxes: Up 4.39% or $49.2 million 

  • Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Down 29.85% or $24.9 million 

  • Fuel Taxes: Up 4.33% or $4.7 million 

  • All other taxes: Down 3.78% or $6.3 million 

Individual tax performance compared to August through October 2023: 

  • Sales Taxes: Up 5.24% or $180.3 million 

  • Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Down 11.94% or $106.5 million 

  • Fuel Taxes: Up 0.37% or $1.3 million 

  • All other taxes: Up 0.57% or $2.8 million 

The budgeted revenue estimates for 2024-2025 are based upon the State Funding Board’s consensus recommendation from November 29, 2023, and adopted by the second session of the 113th General Assembly in April 2024. Also incorporated in the estimates are any changes in revenue enacted during the 2024 session of the General Assembly. All monthly estimates are available on the state’s website at https://www.tn.gov/content/tn/finance/fa/fa-budget-information/fa-budget-rev.html. 

 

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