Boyd Center: Tennessee's population could increase 1 million by 2040

Population Projections

Tennessee could gain 1 million new residents by 2040, according to new population projections by the University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research. Projections see the state’s population becoming more diverse between 2020 and 2070 as well as the average age of the state’s population increasing from 38.8 years to 40.7 years in that time. The state’s current fastest growing age group are those 65 and older. The number of those retirement age in the state is projected to grow by 40% by 2040 while the population of those under the age of 20 is only projected to grow 13% in the same period. This means the senior population will account for nearly half – 47.2% - of the state’s population by that year. In addition to an increase in retirees, increases in the state’s Hispanic population is expected to see the biggest jump by 2040 with those of Hispanic heritage expanded from 5.9% of the state’s population now to 10.2% by 2040. The state’s largest racial group – non-Hispanic whites – is projected to decrease to 66% from its current 73% while the second largest group – those who identify as Black of African-American – will remain even at 16.7%. Those who identify as two or more races will see a population increase from 4.1% to 6.4%. View detailed results on an interactive dashboard. Additional information on the methodology behind the projections, an executive summary, and additional notes are available on the website of the Tennessee State Data Center.