Nashville rebounds, Tennessee’s midsize cities shine in 2023 population estimates

By TIM KUHN
Tennessee State Data Center

Throw a dart at middle Tennessee and chances are you’ll hit one of the state’s higher growth cities. The Census Bureau’s 2023 population estimate data show Nashville, Clarksville, Lebanon, and Murfreesboro were the state’s four fastest-growing cities last year.

Nashville’s 5,658-person gain was the state’s largest single-year population increase over the year from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023. Revised figures show the Music City added another 6,552 people in 2022 making it two-years running that it has topped the state’s list of fastest gaining cities (Figure 1a).

The new data still leaves the Tennessee capital below its 2020 population mark after moves out of the area accelerated sharply during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to IRS migration data. That outflow spike has since subsided, but the longer-term trend of net domestic migration loss – more people moving out than moving in – has persisted in Davidson County since 2016 in the related IRS data and Census estimates.

Clarksville’s growth of nearly 4,000 people placed it second on the list in 2023. For the decade, the 181,000-person community located northwest of Nashville has added 13,200 new residents – more than any other municipality in the state. The City of Lebanon ranked third and displaced Murfreesboro (#4) from the top three for the first time this decade. The Wilson County community logged a notable 8.9 percent 1-year increase and added more than 3,950 people last year.

• 2023 • 2022 •  2021 • 2020-2023

This year’s top 10 also includes three East Tennessee communities—Chattanooga (#5), Alcoa (#8), and Knoxville (#10)—along with three other Nashville metro municipalities: Gallatin (#6), Columbia (#7), and Spring Hill (#9).

Characterizing This Decade’s Municipal Population Trends

Tennessee’s 345 municipalities have added 100,000 new residents so far this decade. That resulted in a 2.4 percent population increase that slightly lags the state’s overall 2.9 percent gain of 200,000 people since 2020 (Figure 1).

Figure 1:  2023 Tennessee Municipal Population Overview

But Tennessee’s cities and towns range from Nashville, the country’s 21st largest city, to the 66 residents of Cottage Grove, located 12 miles northwest of Paris. That array of community sizes and their distribution across the state’s diverse landscape makes it challenging to understand the patterns of population change across Tennessee’s cities and towns.

To help better understand that cross-section, we classified land in the state into four types: City, Suburban, Town, and Rural. Each of those areas were then further refined into three subtypes, which are determined by factors such as population size or proximity to densely developed areas. The classification scheme comes from the National Center for Education Statistics and is typically used to characterize schools. Using the latest available information on corporate boundaries and urban areas published in 2023, a new map for Tennessee was generated (Figure 2).

A final step was to assign each of the state’s 345 municipalities to the locale type that it fell within. The resulting summary provides a more granular view of population change for the state’s cities and towns (Table 2).

Source: Vintage 2023 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

When looking across the locale types, it’s clear that the largest communities in closest proximity to urban centers are adding the most population, but the analysis also revealed some interesting exceptions.

At the top of the list is the state’s four mid-sized cities. They have maintained a strong foothold among the fastest-growing areas in Tennessee – consistently appearing in the annual list of cities adding the most population this decade. Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro have collectively added over 37,000 new residents since 2020. Their combined 5.3 percent increase has outpaced the state’s overall rate of population growth. This contrasts with their larger kin (Nashville and Memphis) which together have experienced recent population declines, down 1.4 percent from their 2020 levels.

Large suburban cities and towns – primarily those bordering Nashville, Knoxville and Chattanooga – were the second fastest gaining group. They added 19,420 people for a 3 percent increase. While that overall rate of growth was just slightly higher than the state’s 2.9 percent, there were some standouts that grew substantially faster. These include Gallatin (12.3 percent), Smyrna (7.3 percent) and Mount Juliet (8.1 percent) in the Nashville area. Knoxville suburbs including Alcoa (21.7 percent), Farragut (8.5 percent) and Lenoir City (16 percent) were tops in the eastern third of the state.

The third fastest gaining locale type is one of the more unique patterns to emerge from the research. “Town – Fringe”, is made up of cities at the edge of large urban areas. It’s a smaller group of communities but they have grown four times faster than the state and added over 17,000 residents since 2020. Their combined 12.6 percent increase is driven mainly by the white-hot growth of outlying municipalities near Nashville. This category includes Lebanon (23.7%), Columbia (12.7%), and White House (17.3%). All three are close enough to benefit from the amenities of larger cities nearby but maintain a distinct identity, degree of affordability and ample land to support the construction of new housing.
 

Growth in Some Remote Municipalities Slows

Generally, the decade’s population change in Tennessee is best described as widespread increases. March numbers showed that 90 of 95 counties logged population gains in 2023, the most since 1997. This marks a significant change compared to last decade when 30 counties lost population between the 2010 and 2020 Censuses. 29 of those counties were considered rural by the state’s Department of Economic and Community Development.

If this analysis identifies any general weakness in this decade’s municipal numbers, it might be found in the most remote and rural parts of the state where population fell slightly for the group (-102 people).

About two-thirds of municipalities situated in “Rural-Remote” locales have grown more slowly than the state’s overall increase of 2.4 percent for all municipalities. But only a handful of them have lost population so far this decade. However, if those statewide increases slow – as recently released Boyd Center projections indicate could happen later this decade – it will likely bring additional focus on the state’s more isolated communities, especially in the western third of the state. By 2030, projections show the trend of population decreases in rural areas of the state could return with 35 counties expected to see a decline that year.