Tennessee October revenues $48.7M above estimates

Tennessee revenues exceeded budgeted estimates for the month of October.  

Department of Finance and Administration Commissioner Jim Bryson reported total October tax revenues were $1.6 billion, $48.7 million more than the budgeted estimate and $112.5 million more than October 2024. The total tax growth rate for the month was 7.50%. 

General fund revenues were $43 million more than the October estimate, while the four other funds that share in state tax revenues were $5.7 million more than the estimates. 

On an accrual basis, October is the third month in the 2025-2026 fiscal year. 

“October sales tax revenues, which reflect September’s taxable sales activity, demonstrate the continued strength of consumer spending across the state,” Bryson said. “Although October is typically a slower month for corporate tax collections, Tennessee still exceeded expectations in that category as well. 

“We are encouraged that revenues continue to remain ahead of projections year-to-date. However, we will continue to monitor economic activity and revenue trends to ensure fiscal stability.” 

On a year-to-date basis, August through October, total tax revenues are 1.59% greater than the budget estimate, or $84.8 million above expectations. When compared to this same period last year, total tax revenues have grown 3.27% or $171.5 million. 

General fund revenues are 1.50% greater than the year-to-date budgeted estimate, or $65.3 million higher. Likewise, general fund collections compared to this same period last year have increased 2.53% or $109.2 million. 

Individual tax performance compared to October 2025 Budgeted Estimates: 

·        Sales Taxes: Above estimate by 2.44% or $29.7 million 

·        Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Above estimate by 11.58% or $7.7 million 

·        Fuel Taxes: Above estimate by 1.63% or $1.8 million 

·        All other taxes: Above estimate by 5.62% or $9.5 million 

Year-to-date performance compared to Budgeted Estimates: 

·        Sales Taxes: Above estimate by 2.12% or $78.8 million 

·        Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Below estimate by 2.45% or $18.9 million 

·        Fuel Taxes: Above estimate by 1.96% or $6.5 million 

·        All other taxes: Above estimate by 3.60% or $18.4 million 

Individual tax performance compared to October 2024: 

·        Sales Taxes: Up 6.77% or $79.1 million 

·        Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Up 26.58% or $15.6 million 

·        Fuel Taxes: Up 0.07% or $80 thousand 

·        All other taxes: Up 11.07% or $17.7 million 

Individual tax performance compared to August through October 2024: 

·        Sales Taxes: Up 4.90% or $177.4 million 

·        Corporate Taxes (Franchise & Excise): Down 4.35% or $34.1 million 

·        Fuel Taxes: Up 1.18% or $4.0 million 

·        All other taxes: Up 4.79% or $24.2 million 

The budgeted revenue estimates for 2025–2026 are based on the State Funding Board’s consensus recommendation from Nov. 25, 2024, which was adopted by the first session of the 114th General Assembly in April 2025. These estimates also incorporate any revenue changes enacted during the 2025 General Assembly session. Monthly estimates for fiscal year 2025–2026 are available on the state’s website.