First Certified Population Reports now available

The Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development (TNECD) has released the 2026 Certified Population of Tennessee Incorporated Municipalities and Counties.  

This annual report provides the official population counts used to determine the distribution of state-shared revenues to local governments across the state. 

The 2026 report provides certified population figures for: 

• 345 incorporated municipalities and the Urban Services District population within the state’s three metropolitan counties. 
• All 95 counties, including a breakdown of population in unincorporated areas and General Services Districts within Davidson, Moore, and Trousdale counties. 
• The state’s aggregate population, which reached 7,317,201 on July 1, 2025. 

Historically, Tennessee’s certified populations remained largely static between decennial enumerations conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau; they changed only if a municipality completed a special census to enumerate its growth. 

That changed with the passage of Public Chapter 501 on May 21, 2025. The new law, which became effective on January 1, 2026, requires that population figures be revised and certified annually during the years between the federal decennial census. To meet this requirement, the Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, through the Tennessee State Data Center, now compiles annual population estimates for review and certification by TNECD. 

The revised statutes also stipulate that revenues shared with counties and municipalities, including state sales tax and gasoline taxes, use the annual estimates when population serves as the basis for allocating funds. 

Details of 2026 Population Estimate Development 

The figures in the 2026 report are primarily based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 Estimates, which reflect resident population as of July 1, 2025. 

Those estimates begin with 2020 Census counts and are updated annually using administrative records from federal, state and local sources – including birth and death events, federal tax returns, Medicare and Social Security files, and local building permit reports – rather than statistical modeling alone. 

For most parts of the state, the Bureau’s estimates are used directly. However, the Boyd Center made several specific adjustments to the standard Census Bureau release to ensure they were compliant with Tennessee statutes: 

• Special Census Overrides: If a community conducted a special census that yielded a higher population count than the Census Bureau’s estimate at the time of enumeration, the higher figure was used. The Bureau’s population estimates were adjusted to reflect the results of the special census, with the estimated net population change applied forward from the point of enumeration to arrive at the July 1, 2025, estimate. 
• Adjusted Aggregate State and County Populations: In counties where a special census override occurred, the county population was calculated as the sum of the population of the special census community, the other municipalities and the unincorporated balance, resulting in a net increase to both the county and state populations. 
• Metropolitan County Services Districts: In Tennessee’s three metropolitan counties, the populations of Urban Services Districts and General Services Districts were estimated separately, using the same subcounty estimate methodology as the Bureau, to ensure the data are compatible with state laws governing how municipal-shared revenues are allocated. 

Population Estimates Program Going Forward 

Between now and July 1, 2030, population estimates will be produced each year using the latest available data until the next decennial census results are available in 2031. For the 2027 report, the Census Bureau’s estimates are expected to be supplemented with a Tennessee-specific estimate model that incorporates additional data from State of Tennessee agencies.