New population estimates for state-shared revenues to be published July 1

The first estimates under the state’s new annual population estimate program will be published on July 1.  

The Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development (TNECD) will publish the figures, which will be based on the estimated population as of July 1, 2025, derived from Vintage 2025 estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau.  

Under a statute enacted in 2025, those figures – rather than decennial census counts – will direct the distribution of state-shared revenues. 

According to the Tennessee State Data Center (TNSDC), the new yearly adjustment will reflect changes to both the population of each community and the overall state population. That means the proportion of funds that communities will receive each year will also change. 

For many communities, the published Census Bureau estimate will serve as the certified population in 2026. However, municipalities and counties that have had a special census certified by ECD will see those results integrated into their figures.  

Population estimates for the urban services districts in the state's three metropolitan counties are also being finalized. Both adjustments affect the final aggregate population totals that serve as the denominator in per capita distributions. 

Boyd Center at the University of Tennessee is tasked with preparing population estimates and while TNECD is charged with their review and certification. More can be learned about the new program on the TNSCD website.